Obama’s Intrade Numbers Due for a Fall
Intrade is currently giving Obama a 64 percent chance of wining the 2008 presidential election, while McCain’s odds are just 25 percent.
Why are Obama’s numbers Intrade numbers so high? A recent newsweek poll shows Obama with a 15 point lead. However, polls conducted just a week ago gave Obama a meagerfive point lead. The fifeteen point difference in the newsweek polls seems to be a statistical outliers, possibly due to poor sampling. It seems extremely implausible that without any breaking scandals that Obama would abruptly gain an additional ten points over McCain.
I have have written numerous times that Obama will lose, and the intrade numbers will eventually reflect this inevitability. Within a a few months I the intrade spread will narrow to just four points with Obama’s odds at 52 and McCain’s at 48. This convergence to equilibrium will be triggered by increasing concerns Obama’s inexperience, his baby momma (Michele Obama), and his lack of appeal to hard working, white Americans.
One advantageous move by McCain is his recent support for drilling for oil offshore, which will will ease rising oil and gas prices. Obama, being a radical environmentalist liberal and a Marxist, opposes offshore drilling. What Obama fails to realize is that the vast majority of Ameircans could care less where the oil comes from as long as gas prices go down. McCain at least has a viable solution, while Obama is still belittling the ‘bitter’ people and giving out terrorist fist jabs. I can guarantee that McCain’s offshore drilling proposal WILL boost his poll and intrade numbers in the coming week.
2 Responses to “Obama’s Intrade Numbers Due for a Fall”
Pingback from iamned.com Blog » Obama’s Intrade Numbers Tank, Smartist Web 2.0 Era is Here
Time September 9, 2008 at 6:17 pm
[...] According to Intrade Obama only has a 52 percent chance of winning, a 15 percent decline from his peak. McCain’s numbers have surged from 31 percent in early June to 47 percent. Meanwhile, polls are showing McCain with a four point lead over Obama, thus erasing any post convention bounce Obama received. This doesn’t come as a surprise as I have been predicting such an Intrade reversal for months now. [...]
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Pingback from iamned.com Blog » Update: Palin Rocks RNC, Obama will Lose
Time September 5, 2008 at 12:07 am
[...] I predicted months ago Obama’s intrade numbers would fall. Sure enough, Obama’s numbers are off four points and McCain’s have risen ten points [...]