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Ignore the Political Scientists; Obama Will Lose in 08′

(Warning: This blog entry is over 500 words. I you prefer to read off a cereal box hit your back button)

Although six months remain till the 2008 campaign draws to a close, political scientists are already prognosticating a strong victory for Obama, using historical election and economic data to back their claims. What they don’t seem realize is that realize is that we’re in a new era, and neo-liberals such as Obama don’t win elections.

But what about the imaginary recession, housing ‘bubble’, the credit crunch, the widening wealth gap, rising oil, rising gas, rising food, George W. Bush’s poor approval ratings, and the so called ‘unpopular’ war in Iraq? Don’t these negatives for the incumbent bode well for an Obama victory win in 2008? Political historians think they do. Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University has created a system dubbed ‘13 Keys to the Whitehouse’, which supposedly has ‘predicted’ the winner of every presidential dating back to 1860.

“The keys are based on the thesis that elections turn on the performance of the party in control of the White House, in this case the Republicans. And they don’t depend on the particularities of the campaign,???

According to Lichtman’s analysis not once has the party in control been able to retain the White House if six out of the thirteen keys turn against the incumbent. Right now, seven are against McCain’s party, with two others leaning against it. Those keys measure incumbency, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign developments such as war, the charisma of the candidates, inter-party contests, scandals and third-party challenges.

So doesn’t that pretty much ensure an Obama victory? Surely a system created by an esteemed professor that has proven infallible since 1860 can’t fail? Actually, it can fail because political prediction ’systems’ are for the most part biased by the observer, which invalidates any scientific objectivity. The problem with Lichtman’s key analysis is that it uses past data to try to extrapolate future results, and as many stock market traders can attest to hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can create a system and then ‘massage’ the variables to get the desired results. There is obviously no scientific, objective way of measuring ‘foreign developments’ or ‘charisma’ of a candidate since those variables are subjective and impossible to quantify.

Regardless of how many ‘keys’ are against McCain, the republican machine is still a force to be reckoned with. The success of the republican party lies in appealing to American’s fears and greed. While Obama talks vaguely about ‘hope’ and ‘change’, McCain has an entirely different tactic of using terrorism to instill fear in Americans while labeling Obama as inexperienced; a strategy that worked for Bush in 2004 and will work again in 2008. In addition, republicans play the family values card and the tax cut card, which has proven to be an unassailable strategy for sealing republican victories since Nixon’s ‘moral majority’.

Most Americans could care less about ‘hope’ and ‘change’; they want more money (tax cuts), security (pro guns, war on terror, war on Iraq and Iran), and preservation of traditional values (anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion). Neo-liberal values of environmentalism, ‘equality of opportunity’ and fighting ‘corporate corruption’ has never resonated with most Americans in the past and won’t in this election. This is why Obama is destined to lose in 2008 because he is a Marxist, welfare liberal. Instead of eliminating our enemies he wants to converse with them, instead of promoting wealth creation and capitalism he wants to impose more taxes and regulations on corporations and the rich.

The polls also show a potential uphill battle for Obama. Recent hypothetical general election polls show Obama and McCain to be nearly neck and neck. Obama ‘lead’ is within the margin of error, and hardly portends to a ‘landslide’ victory as many pundits are predicting. It is also interesting to note that although Bush’s approval ratings are at historical lows and only one third of Americans support the Iraq war, nearly half of Americans will vote for McCain. Why? Because in spite of the flaws of the administration many Americans would still rather have a war-mongering republican over a Marxist like Obama, which isn’t surprising if the ‘red scare’ of the 50’s is any reminder.

So what will happen next? By early August the tides will begin to turn against Obama. There will probably be another Reverend Wright type scandal or another bittergate and McCain will continue attacking Obama on his inexperience regarding terrorism and Iraq. Meanwhile, Obama’s Intrade prediction market numbers will fall from the present 62 percent chance of a 2008 victory to 50 percent. And come November 4th it will become painfully clear that Obama was just the ‘Osama’ the republicans needed for another victory.

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