It is Impossible to Truly be on the Forefront
I strive to maximize my performance in the stock market whenever possible, and be on the forefront of the latest trends. Coal stock have been on an ABSOLUTE tear for the past two months and I regrettably haven’t capitalized on the recent coal boom. I don’t own any coal stocks because I’m already vested in Mosaic Corporation and Visa. I could switch, but I don’t want to pay the taxes and I am content with my current returns and positions.
But the nagging feeling that I could do better still lingers. You always want to do better, and you beat yourself up for not achieving optimal returns. Why didn’t I buy buy PCX at 100? Was I too busy whacking off or whatever not to notice that coal would be the dotcom equivalent of the 21st century? Where was I and why wasn’t I buying coal? Dammit!
I remember in the fall of 2007 when Google and Bidu were literally going up ten dollars every day for three months strait. Google surged from 500 to 740, and I was beating myself up for not being long. Then in mid October with hardly a hint of warning the markets reversed, toppling Bidu and Google. Both stocks have yet to recover to their historic highs.
I am still bullish on coal, and while I can’t call the top there is still more upside if you have the patience to hold these stocks for the long term. I can almost assure you that in a year all of the coal stocks will have made new 52 week highs, baring a catastrophic bear market.
In conclusion, you can’t beat yourself up for not being on the forefront of the latest trends. It is virtually impossible to know which sector (such as coal) wallstreet will bestow its graces upon. Just pick a pick a profitable strategy that works for you and stick with it.
Energy and Materials Stocks Keep Surging …Ned is Right as Always
Even with the dow down 130 points and the nasdaq down 28 points, Ned’s picks for the most part went up.
Why do Ned’s stocks do so well even when the Dow loses 230 points in two days? Because Ned knows how the stock market works and he is almost never wrong. Ned is on the forefront of the ’smartist era’ of the New World Order and therefore knows exactly which stocks to buy to make money in ANY market condition.
Meanwhile, Tim putz from slopeofhope is charting his way to losses by shorting energy stocks. LOL what a failure. Even with the markets down two percent in the past two days he can’t make money being short, which is pathetic to say the least.
The Ned method is so simple. You go to iamned.com and buy the stuff ned recommends. Then hold it for awhile. No funny graph, zigzags, shade-ins, and you make much more money.
Ignore the Political Scientists; Obama Will Lose in 08′
(Warning: This blog entry is over 500 words. I you prefer to read off a cereal box hit your back button)
Although six months remain till the 2008 campaign draws to a close, political scientists are already prognosticating a strong victory for Obama, using historical election and economic data to back their claims. What they don’t seem realize is that realize is that we’re in a new era, and neo-liberals such as Obama don’t win elections.
But what about the imaginary recession, housing ‘bubble’, the credit crunch, the widening wealth gap, rising oil, rising gas, rising food, George W. Bush’s poor approval ratings, and the so called ‘unpopular’ war in Iraq? Don’t these negatives for the incumbent bode well for an Obama victory win in 2008? Political historians think they do. Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University has created a system dubbed ‘13 Keys to the Whitehouse’, which supposedly has ‘predicted’ the winner of every presidential dating back to 1860.
“The keys are based on the thesis that elections turn on the performance of the party in control of the White House, in this case the Republicans. And they don’t depend on the particularities of the campaign,???
According to Lichtman’s analysis not once has the party in control been able to retain the White House if six out of the thirteen keys turn against the incumbent. Right now, seven are against McCain’s party, with two others leaning against it. Those keys measure incumbency, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign developments such as war, the charisma of the candidates, inter-party contests, scandals and third-party challenges.
So doesn’t that pretty much ensure an Obama victory? Surely a system created by an esteemed professor that has proven infallible since 1860 can’t fail? Actually, it can fail because political prediction ’systems’ are for the most part biased by the observer, which invalidates any scientific objectivity. The problem with Lichtman’s key analysis is that it uses past data to try to extrapolate future results, and as many stock market traders can attest to hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can create a system and then ‘massage’ the variables to get the desired results. There is obviously no scientific, objective way of measuring ‘foreign developments’ or ‘charisma’ of a candidate since those variables are subjective and impossible to quantify.
Regardless of how many ‘keys’ are against McCain, the republican machine is still a force to be reckoned with. The success of the republican party lies in appealing to American’s fears and greed. While Obama talks vaguely about ‘hope’ and ‘change’, McCain has an entirely different tactic of using terrorism to instill fear in Americans while labeling Obama as inexperienced; a strategy that worked for Bush in 2004 and will work again in 2008. In addition, republicans play the family values card and the tax cut card, which has proven to be an unassailable strategy for sealing republican victories since Nixon’s ‘moral majority’.
Most Americans could care less about ‘hope’ and ‘change’; they want more money (tax cuts), security (pro guns, war on terror, war on Iraq and Iran), and preservation of traditional values (anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion). Neo-liberal values of environmentalism, ‘equality of opportunity’ and fighting ‘corporate corruption’ has never resonated with most Americans in the past and won’t in this election. This is why Obama is destined to lose in 2008 because he is a Marxist, welfare liberal. Instead of eliminating our enemies he wants to converse with them, instead of promoting wealth creation and capitalism he wants to impose more taxes and regulations on corporations and the rich.
The polls also show a potential uphill battle for Obama. Recent hypothetical general election polls show Obama and McCain to be nearly neck and neck. Obama ‘lead’ is within the margin of error, and hardly portends to a ‘landslide’ victory as many pundits are predicting. It is also interesting to note that although Bush’s approval ratings are at historical lows and only one third of Americans support the Iraq war, nearly half of Americans will vote for McCain. Why? Because in spite of the flaws of the administration many Americans would still rather have a war-mongering republican over a Marxist like Obama, which isn’t surprising if the ‘red scare’ of the 50’s is any reminder.
So what will happen next? By early August the tides will begin to turn against Obama. There will probably be another Reverend Wright type scandal or another bittergate and McCain will continue attacking Obama on his inexperience regarding terrorism and Iraq. Meanwhile, Obama’s Intrade prediction market numbers will fall from the present 62 percent chance of a 2008 victory to 50 percent. And come November 4th it will become painfully clear that Obama was just the ‘Osama’ the republicans needed for another victory.
Market Set For A Sharp Rally
Back in early march I blogged about how the US stock market narrowly avoided a bear market because the S&P 500 never closed below 1252, which is the critical twenty percent retracement that defines a bear market. Currently, the S&P 500 is at 1354; a solid hundred points or eight percent above 1252 even after the recent pullback in June.
However, the charts are indicating a sharp rebound in the major indexes. One of my favorite charts is the five year DJIA which shows excellent support in the 12,000 level. Since 2006 the Dow has rebounded at least a thousand points after touching 12,000, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again.
So what should you buy to capitalize on this rally? I recommend the same stuff as I have been recommending on iamned.com for the past five months such as EWZ, MOS, POT, V, MA, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, FSLR, and BIDU.