Dow Falls 3%, Still Not a Bear Market
Today the major US indexes fell three percent on rising oil and downgrades on Citi and General Motors. Whoop dee doo. Who cares. I’m still long, I’m still recommending the same stocks, we’re still not in a bear market, the credit crunch and recession is fake, and the smartist era isn’t over. There is no need to over analyze every market fluctuation because my strategy for making money is long term. Also, Obama will lose. Did I mention that already? He will lose.
Barry Ritholtz is a Putz?
It looks like Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture (http://bigpicture.typepad.com) has finally proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is a putz with his most recent blog entry, where he not only threatens a frivolous lawsuit but resorts to crude, unprofessional language.
Here is a screenshot:
I wonder what Kudlow’s reaction to this would be. I’m sure he would be very disappointed.
The irony is that Bary Rithholtz tries to pass himself on his big picture blog as some sort of cutting edge economic and financial prognosticator, but on Kudlow and Company he comes across as a malodorous, bumbling idiot who is still trying to remember what he ate for lunch, and his most recent entry only confirms this.
Obama’s Intrade Numbers Due for a Fall
Intrade is currently giving Obama a 64 percent chance of wining the 2008 presidential election, while McCain’s odds are just 25 percent.
Why are Obama’s numbers Intrade numbers so high? A recent newsweek poll shows Obama with a 15 point lead. However, polls conducted just a week ago gave Obama a meagerfive point lead. The fifeteen point difference in the newsweek polls seems to be a statistical outliers, possibly due to poor sampling. It seems extremely implausible that without any breaking scandals that Obama would abruptly gain an additional ten points over McCain.
I have have written numerous times that Obama will lose, and the intrade numbers will eventually reflect this inevitability. Within a a few months I the intrade spread will narrow to just four points with Obama’s odds at 52 and McCain’s at 48. This convergence to equilibrium will be triggered by increasing concerns Obama’s inexperience, his baby momma (Michele Obama), and his lack of appeal to hard working, white Americans.
One advantageous move by McCain is his recent support for drilling for oil offshore, which will will ease rising oil and gas prices. Obama, being a radical environmentalist liberal and a Marxist, opposes offshore drilling. What Obama fails to realize is that the vast majority of Ameircans could care less where the oil comes from as long as gas prices go down. McCain at least has a viable solution, while Obama is still belittling the ‘bitter’ people and giving out terrorist fist jabs. I can guarantee that McCain’s offshore drilling proposal WILL boost his poll and intrade numbers in the coming week.
Still Not a Bear Market
Although the US markets fell nearly four percent last week, the S&P 500 is stil roughly sixtyfive points from entering bear market territory. The most recent S&P 500 high is 1565.15 on Oct. 9. A twenty point reversal that defines a bear market would mean that the S&P would have to close below 1252.
Will there the S&P ever cross the 1252 threshold? No it won’t because we’re in the smartist web 2.0 era of economic and financial perpetualism, which means there will never be another bear market again. The bull market that began on October 2002 will last for eternity baring a serious catastrope such as a pandemic or giant meteorite impact.
Also as I wrote last week there is still tons of support in the 12,000 range for the Dow. Although it broke 12,000 the support still holds.
Here are some good stocks to buy now. If you buy these on a dip you will come out way ahead when the market does reboud.