We’re Still In a Bull Market
Even after Bear Sterns meltdown yesterday, the stock market remains well in bull market territory. The S&P 500 closed at 1388-still thirty six points above the critical 1252 level. A close below that level would officially herald a bear market, but it has yet to happen. The fact that stocks were able to hold up relatively well on Friday is a very bullish sign because it indicted that the majority of investors view the Bear Sterns blowup as in isolated event.
Remember the Enron and Worldcom blowups of Spring 2002? All the usual boo hoo hoo ers through this was the final nail in the coffin for US business, after what has been a huge bear market. Pessimism and negativity dominated the business headlines, as fears over further business scandals gripped investors.
But the panic was unfounded as there were only handful of corporate scandals, and by the Fall of 2002, just a few months after the collapse of Enron, stocks abruptly began a six year bull market. Maybe things weren’t so bad after all.
Here are some charts that illustrate my point. As you can see below, the DJIA is still above the jan 23rd level. After all of this negativity regarding recessions, bear markets, inflation, Bear Sterns, we still haven’t made fresh lows.
The longer trend for the DJIA (and stock market in general) is still very bullish.
In conclusion, now is a better time than ever to buy stocks. The bull market which began on October of 2002 ISN’T over.
Iamned.com Mission Statement
In the past few months the content of iamned.com has shifted from SEO and internet marketing type advice to stock market and economic analysis. I am aware of this shift, and thats how I intend for it to be. I will occasionally write about online marketing, but the main focus of iamned.com will be on the stock market, web 2.0, lambasting websites that suck (such as wickedfire, commentgeeks.com, and bluehatseo), and the economy.
With regards to the stock market I firmly beleive that making money in the stock market should be easy. The goal of the stock market is to make money, and if you buy ther stocks that have a tendency to go up, have huge growth, and hold them for while, you will make vastly more money than over-leveraged daytraders. Some stock market blogs like slopeofhope.com make the process of stock trading needlessly difficult, complicated, and risky. You don’t need to trade options, invest in expensive software and hardware, or daytrade to make huge a lot of money with stocks.
In 2007 my ENTIRE portfolio rose 40%, far exceeding the market averages. I intend for 2008 to be a repeat of this stellar performance. Did I daytrade?..nope. All I did was buy and hold the stocks that went up, and made good money in the process.
Consider this: you buy $40K of MOS (The Mosaic Company)stock at $110 and it surges to $130. You’ve just made about %15 percent or about $6K with just a single buy order. Ok, I know I’m oversimplifying things because there is a possibility MOS could tank as with any investment, BUT if you look at the historical five year chart and the fundamentals behind the company, the odds favor it going much higher.
Thats how making money in the stock market should work. There is no need to waste time and money on multiple monitor setups, arcane trades, over-leverage, and slippage when you can just place a few buy and sell orders and make far more money for less risk. It is an established fact that at least 75% percent of daytraders will lose money, so what you think that with your high-tech, quad LCD setup you will be one of the few that succeed? The ‘primitive’ buy & holders are the ones making money, actually.
Another problem investors face is an over bombardment of information and news, the vast majority of which is trivial and misleading. One of my goals of iamned.com it to simply the vague, obfuscated world of the stock market into black and white. While platform, high-techday traders over-scrutinize economic data, I simply the data in terms anyone can understand. When I write that “housing is not a big deal”, it isn’t a big deal. Instead of obsessing needlessly over housing or economic data you should just login to Etrade, Scottrade, and just buy some EWZ or other stock I recommend on iamned.com. By the time the economic data is released, the huge funds have already digested it. What makes you think that you can beat the pros with your home setup? It’s futile trying to trade the news because the pros already have you beat. Instead, buy the stocks that go up (which I recommend on iamned.com) on any dips and start making money.
In conclusion, first and foremost making money in the stock market is suposto be easy. The main goal of iamned.com is to simply the confusing world of the stock market into recommendations normal, average people can undearstand.
This Imaginary ‘Credit Crunch’ and ‘Liquidity Crisis’ Is So Painful
Oh no woe is me. We’re in a credit crunch and a liquidity crisis. I can’t get me any liquidity. I can’t get any credit. Boo hoo hoo there is too much inflation. My house keeps falling in value. Boo hoo hoo the war in Iraq is going on too long. The dollar keeps falling and there is too much inflation. I have no credit and no liquidity. PLeeeease Obama help me. I lost my job due to outsourcing. The economy is in shambles. We’re in a bear market. I hate free trade…blah blah blah
The pro-Obama, pro-Ron Paul protectionist, isolationist, anti-Nafta, leftist media will have you believe there is is a credit crunch and a liquidity crisis. But this couldn’t be further from the truth. These is TONNNS of credit and HUUUGE liquidity. You can’t tell me there is a ‘credit crunch’ or a liquidity’ crisis when there isn’t one.
There is still massive credit card spending and consumer debt. Banks are still issuing out credit cards and loans. If there were really a ‘credit crisis’ or ‘liquidity crisis’ that wouldn’t be possible. Consumers and students still maxing out the credit cards. Foreigners coming from overseas to buy US goods thanks to the falling dollar. The left-wing losers will have you think that a falling dollar is bad for the US economy, when that couldn’t be further form the truth. The falling dollar is extremely beneficial to the economy, as I have written last month in a prior article.
We’re in a global economic boom, and if there were a credit crunch or liquidity crisis that wouldn’t be possible. China and India’s GDP’s are growing at 8-11 percent a year. We’re also in a second Silicon Valley dotcom boom with Web 2.0. Housing prices keep surging in the Bay Area. No way you can say there is a housing bubble when there isn’t one. Web 2.0 is certainly not a bubble and facebook is still worth $30-45 billion dollars, contrary to the leftist bubblehead losers who say that is a bubble valuation. We have huge consumer spending and student loans as well. The colleges are packed with students, each of them with credit cards.
Where is the credit crunch, huh? I don’t see it. Pleaaaase help me find it. This credit crunch is so painful. I can’t take it anymore. PLease for the love of god make it stop. I have no credit and no liquidity.
Today Bloomberg reported that the Carlyle Group is near collapse. Creditors plan to seize more than $400 million dollars in assets. Yaaawn…does anyone care? Not me and certainly not the market. Since the article was published the Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged 280 points, reversing an 200 point morning loss. Wow markets up again. This credit crunch is unbearable. Make it stop. If this story was really such a big deal the markets would be deep red, but they are well into the green so that only proves that no one caress about these doomsayer stories published by Anti-free trade, pro-Obama lefties.
You must buy MA (mastercard) stock. The fact that MA stock has doubled this year is PROOF there is no credit crunch or liquidity crisis. If people didn’t have access to credit or liquidity they wouldn’t be able to max out their credit cards and take out loans, and MA would be much lower. Mastercard’s staggering success shows no sign of slowing in spite of the media generated ‘financial crisis’. The consumer is stronger than ever and will continue to max out credit cards, and that trend isn’t gonna change. I have a target of $300 for MA stock this year.
Overall, there is no credit crunch or liquidity crisis except an imaginary media generated one. I am still VERY bullish on the stock market. The bull market which began on October of 2002 is far from over. There is no recession. The dow will retest 14,000 this year, and make historic highs in early 2009. And this ‘credit crunch’ and ‘liquidity crisis’ will be seen as little more than a blip.
Upgraded to disqus comment system
I have upgraded Iamned.com to the disqus commenting system. This will allow Iamned.com readers to create accounts and avatars and other features.
To create a disqus account go here:
it is very easy