iamned.com Blog

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Although six months remain till the 2008 campaign draws to a close, political scientists are already prognosticating a strong victory for Obama, using historical election and economic data to back their claims. What they don’t seem realize is that realize is that we’re in a new era, and neo-liberals such as Obama don’t win elections.

But what about the imaginary recession, housing ‘bubble’, the credit crunch, the widening wealth gap, rising oil, rising gas, rising food, George W. Bush’s poor approval ratings, and the so called ‘unpopular’ war in Iraq? Don’t these negatives for the incumbent bode well for an Obama victory win in 2008? Political historians think they do. Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University has created a system dubbed ‘13 Keys to the Whitehouse’, which supposedly has ‘predicted’ the winner of every presidential dating back to 1860.

“The keys are based on the thesis that elections turn on the performance of the party in control of the White House, in this case the Republicans. And they don’t depend on the particularities of the campaign,”

According to Lichtman’s analysis not once has the party in control been able to retain the White House if six out of the thirteen keys turn against the incumbent. Right now, seven are against McCain’s party, with two others leaning against it. Those keys measure incumbency, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign developments such as war, the charisma of the candidates, inter-party contests, scandals and third-party challenges.

So doesn’t that pretty much ensure an Obama victory? Surely a system created by an esteemed professor that has proven infallible since 1860 can’t fail? Actually, it can fail because political prediction ’systems’ are for the most part biased by the observer, which invalidates any scientific objectivity. The problem with Lichtman’s key analysis is that it uses past data to try to extrapolate future results, and as many stock market traders can attest to hindsight is 20/20. Anyone can create a system and then ‘massage’ the variables to get the desired results. There is obviously no scientific, objective way of measuring ‘foreign developments’ or ‘charisma’ of a candidate since those variables are subjective and impossible to quantify.

Regardless of how many ‘keys’ are against McCain, the republican machine is still a force to be reckoned with. The success of the republican party lies in appealing to American’s fears and greed. While Obama talks vaguely about ‘hope’ and ‘change’, McCain has an entirely different tactic of using terrorism to instill fear in Americans while labeling Obama as inexperienced; a strategy that worked for Bush in 2004 and will work again in 2008. In addition, republicans play the family values card and the tax cut card, which has proven to be an unassailable strategy for sealing republican victories since Nixon’s ‘moral majority’.

Most Americans could care less about ‘hope’ and ‘change’; they want more money (tax cuts), security (pro guns, war on terror, war on Iraq and Iran), and preservation of traditional values (anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion). Neo-liberal values of environmentalism, ‘equality of opportunity’ and fighting ‘corporate corruption’ has never resonated with most Americans in the past and won’t in this election. This is why Obama is destined to lose in 2008 because he is a Marxist, welfare liberal. Instead of eliminating our enemies he wants to converse with them, instead of promoting wealth creation and capitalism he wants to impose more taxes and regulations on corporations and the rich.

The polls also show a potential uphill battle for Obama. Recent hypothetical general election polls show Obama and McCain to be nearly neck and neck. Obama ‘lead’ is within the margin of error, and hardly portends to a ‘landslide’ victory as many pundits are predicting. It is also interesting to note that although Bush’s approval ratings are at historical lows and only one third of Americans support the Iraq war, nearly half of Americans will vote for McCain. Why? Because in spite of the flaws of the administration many Americans would still rather have a war-mongering republican over a Marxist like Obama, which isn’t surprising if the ‘red scare’ of the 50’s is any reminder.

So what will happen next? By early August the tides will begin to turn against Obama. There will probably be another Reverend Wright type scandal or another bittergate and McCain will continue attacking Obama on his inexperience regarding terrorism and Iraq. Meanwhile, Obama’s Intrade prediction market numbers will fall from the present 62 percent chance of a 2008 victory to 50 percent. And come November 4th it will become painfully clear that Obama was just the ‘Osama’ the republicans needed for another victory.

Back in early march I blogged about how the US stock market narrowly avoided a bear market because the S&P 500 never closed below 1252, which is the critical twenty percent retracement that defines a bear market. Currently, the S&P 500 is at 1354; a solid hundred points or eight percent above 1252 even after the recent pullback in June.

However, the charts are indicating a sharp rebound in the major indexes. One of my favorite charts is the five year DJIA which shows excellent support in the 12,000 level. Since 2006 the Dow has rebounded at least a thousand points after touching 12,000, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again.

So what should you buy to capitalize on this rally? I recommend the same stuff as I have been recommending on iamned.com for the past five months such as EWZ, MOS, POT, V, MA, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, FSLR, and BIDU.

While the pro-Obama democrats complain constantly about rising oil prices, pain at the pump, the war in Iraq, the imaginary recession, outsourcing, the fake credit crunch and liquidity crisis, housing bubble, rising food prices, rising tuition, and consumer debt we are still living in the smartist web 2.0 era of the new world order, and regardless of much the liberals complain it isn’t going to change that fact.

Smarty companies such TechChrunch, Google, Facebook, slide.com, Mashable, Twitter, Myspace, Digg, and Youtube are leading the web 2.0 revolution. Although only a couple years old TechChrunch is currently valued at $500 million, Facebook $30 billion, Digg $300 million, Google $200 Billion, Youtube $20 billion. The boo hoo hoo democrats would have you believe that web 2.0 is a bubble, but it isn’t even close to being one.

With such phenomenal wealth being created so quickly you can’t tell me there are any serious economic problems. If there were really a recession stocks such as Google and Apple wouldn’t keep going up. And if the credit crunch was real instead of a fabricated, media generated ‘crisis’ stocks such as Visa and Mastercard wouldn’t be at record highs.

I present my FULL list of stocks for the ‘new era’ which we are currently living in:

MOS/POT/IPI (pick any one)
V/MA
BIDU
RIMM
AAPL
CLR
PCX
CLF
FWLT
KOL
EWZ
GOOG
OIL
FSLR

If you buy these stocks and ETFs and hold them for awhile you will make MUCH more money MORE QUICKLY than you would reading the nonsensical jargon on slopeofhope, or any other financial blog or website.

You don’t need useless trend lines, log graphs, shade-ins, and zigzags to make money in stocks. All you need to is buy the stocks and ETFs that I recommend on iamned.com and hold em’ for awhile. It is that simple.

I am almost never wrong when it comes to recommending stocks. So far my picks have decimated the market, and will continue to do so. This is because I am aware that we are living in a ‘new era’ of the new world order, and thus I know how to profit off of it. Thats why I recommended EWZ in January at $72, which is up 26 percent since. In the same period the S&P 500 is negative.

Fox, which is fair and balanced, reported that Obama’s fist jab could be a terrorist signal which is a very valid point. In addition, Michelle Obama is Obama’s baby momma.

McCain will win the election because Obama is too liberal. No one cares about the war going on too long, the fake recession, the immaginary credit crunch, or rising oil, tution, outsourcing, food, and gas prices except radical, pro-Obama liberals.

The war will go on, food prices will go up, gas will go to $5 a gallon, oil will go to $200, jobs will be outsourced, consumer debt will keep rising, the dollar will keep falling, web 2.0 is not a bubble, and Facebook is worth $30 billion. The stock market will react favorably to all of this.

Silicon Valley real estate will keep rising. NO housing bubble there. NO recession. In a hypercapitalist, spendist, consumerist, smartist, globalist ‘new era’ which we are living in, marxist democrats like Obama Laden can’t win elections. This isn’t the 60’s or 30’s.

here is a boo hoo hoo-er that casts criticism on social networking:

http://mashable.com/2008/06/12/social-media-delusions-of-grandeur/

I’m certain Steven Hodson is a pro-Obama democrat who is jealous that his crappy website isn’t worth $30 billion like facebook or that his utopian, socialist democratic ideals aren’t being fullfilled.

He writes:

If social media was making any changes why are the homeless of the Katrina disaster still waiting on the government to fulfill their promises. How about the the Myanmar disaster now that everyone’s attention has turned elsewhere. Where is the social pressure from those bragging about changing the world with social media over the people who are still dying in Darfur. Why is it that social media isn’t holding our own government to the fire over our own homelessness and children falling through the cracks because their isn’t enough money for the services needed to save them.

——————–

Boo hoo hoo spoken like a true Marxist. The truth of the matter is, no one except pro-Obama liberals cares about homelessness, ‘children falling through the cracks’ (whatever that means), Katrina, Darfur, or Myanmar. What people care about is making money, gadgets such as the Iphone, spending money (spendism, consumerism), celebrities, and social networking. Most sane, level minded Americans would agree that George Bush’s repsonse to Katrina was more than adequate; it’s the radical liberals that continue to make a stink about it.

No, I am not dead, but I decided to take a break from iamned.com to focus on other activities. However, since I have paused my blogging my stock picks have crushed the market, and nearly all my predictions came true.

Oil and gas prices are going higher, McCain will win, and we are technically still in a bull market since October 2002 because the S&P 500 never closed below 1252. The smartist era is NOT over and we’re still in a globalist economic boom. Web 2.0 is not a bubble, the smarties of the New World Order are leading the transition to a type 1 civilization, and Facebook is worth $30 billion dollars.

Unfortunately, Barrack Osama Laden won the democratic primary in spite of the fact that he only appeals to San Francisco liberals, African Americans, and college students. Hillary not only won the popular vote, but she appeals to the core white , hard-working people and she isn’t a Marxist like Obama. On a positive note, McCain will CRUSH Obama in the general election because we’re in a new era of hypercapitalism, globalism, spendism and consumerism and therefore radical liberals like Osama can’t win elections.

OIL IS GOING TO $200 and gas IS going to $5 a gallon, but contrary to what the boo hoo hoo liberals are predicting the consumer will not be negatively affected and neither will the stock market. Stocks, oil, and gas prices will rise together. $5 or even $6 gallong gas and $200 oil is actually bullish for stocks.

 When I tell people to buy stocks I am usually right. I know how stocks work and how the market works unlike the putz Tim Knight from slopeofhope who draws a bunch of funny trend lines and zigzags, which are useless. Making money in the stock market is as easy as going to iamned.com and buying the stocks I recommend.

Lets recap how successful my stock predictions have been (as of 6/9/08, 11:30 AM Atlantic time) since I last updated my blog:

RIMM - $130

AAPL - $183

MA - $287 Up a jaw dropping 40% since I recommended at $200..indeed amazing

V - $82 Up 36% since I recommened at $60 at the IPO

OIL - $81.6

MOS - $142

I’ve been telling people to buy MOS while it was trading at $100…up a whopping 40% since.

KOL -$56

Up a mindblowing 25% since I told people to buy

EWZ- $95

Told people to buy EWZ months ago at $72..now up a staggering 30%!!!

GOOG- $555

Told people to buy GOOG at $440 way back in early march, now up 25%. 

BIDU: $333

All of these stocks are much higher than when I first recommended them while the stock market has been stagnent in that same period. Had you invested in any of ned’s picks you would have crushed the market, while following slopeofhope.com you would have lost money and wasted a lot of time, too. As I have said many times before making money in the stock market should be as simple as placing a buy order as opposed to having to rely on useless trendlines, moving averages, and other nonsense. I pick the stocks and you buy em’. Then sit back and make money.

I am almost always right.

It appears Ned is right again. The day after recommending Visa stock upon the IPO, Visa is now up 13 percent to $64/share. When I say it is time to buy it usually is. In addition, the markets have staged a powerful comeback after yesterdays steep sell off with the DJIA up 175 points, the Nasdaq up 29 points, and the S&P 500 up 19 points.

Why is the market up so much? BECAUSE WE’RE STILL IN A BULL MARKET which began on October 2002.

Also, Mastercard (MA) is up 6 percent today to $220/share. Back on March 11th I told my imaginary readers to buy MA stock when it was at $195/share. Had anyone purchased MA on March 11th they would be up about 13 percent while the market is flat in that same period.

Why is Visa and Mastercard up so much while the major indexes are flat? The reason why is because we’re in the ‘new era’ of spendism, paymentism, globalism, and consumerism. We have millions of consumers from all over the world using Creditcards instead of paper currency for purchases. Creditcard companies have also made it easier to extract money from consumers though such means as phone based payment systems, pay pass systems, and other technological systems. The means of which the ‘the creators’ of the new world order use to extract money from people is called paymentism.

But aren’t we in a so called ‘recession’ and a ‘credit crunch’ and ‘liquidity crisis’? Um no we aren’t. The only ‘credit crisis’ and recession is a leftist, populist, pro-Obama media generated one. Consumer spending or spendism is stronger than ever, which directly benefits Mastercard and Visa. If we were really in a recession and or a credit crunch consumers wouldn’t have access to plentiful credit for consumer based spending and stocks like Mastercard and Visa would have sold-off, but they haven’t.

In conclusion, buy Mastercard and Visa stock on any dips and hold for the long term. You will make FAR more money with less risk utilizing this method than daytrading, using ineffectual, cluttered Fibonacci lines, or playing risky options.

I will admit that I went long on the Visa IPO. I sold my holdings of GOOG (at a loss) and EWZ (at a nice profit) this morning before the market open and went long on some VISA stock at $59.5/share. I only allocated 1/3 of my portfolio to VISA because I didn’t like the tape action in the first few minutes of trading. There was no strong rally or buying preasure, upon the opening. The stock apeared to have debuted somewhere around $65 and quickly sold off to $55, before rebounding to $59, thus validating my original suspision of poor tape activity. Fortunately, I didn’t go all in and I still have enough cash to buy more should it go lower.

Visa should be at $70 right now given all the hype surounding the IPO and Visa’s stellar fundamentals and growth prospects. BUT-I am still VERY bullish on the long term outlook of Visa, which is why I’m holding (even at a slight loss).

Visa has dominant marketshare-66% of creditcard market, surpasing Mastercard by a large margin. In addition, Visa has huge growth prospects in emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Russia, and India. Visa’s market cap is roughly $23 billion ($58.2 share X 400 milloion shares), which isn’t that excessive when you consider that VMware has a market cap of $16 billion or that GOOGLE is worth over $200 billion, yet when these companies went public they were only worth a couple billion. I woudn’t be surprised to see Visa having a $60 billion dollar market cap in the next year, as its earnings contonue to grow. The potential is absolutely huge.

The 1-day chart is very bullish with a short term target of $65

My target for Visa is $100 within the next few months, asuming the market doesn’t fall off a cliff. As I wrote many times on Iamned.com, we’re still in a bull market and a global economic boom as humanity transitions to a globalist, smartist type one civilization. We’re still in the ‘new era’ of spendism, consumerism, paymentism, and hyper capitalism. Visa stands to benefit directly from this transition.

As I continue to add to my Visa position I’ll update.

Stock Market Surges Off Lows. The ‘New Era’ ISN’T Going Away

Mint.com is worth $2 billion dollars.