iamned.com Blog

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cetin hakimoglu

On 1 February 2008 Microsoft made an unsolicited takeover bid to buy Yahoo for US$44.6 billion dollars in cash and stock. If this deal materializes it will be the largest technology take over ever.

But more interestingly is that this deal leaves the door open for google to make a large acquisition since Microsoft would be temporarily out of funds.

A couple months ago I hypothesized that Google could and should acquire Facebook for $30 billion dollars. Everyone dismissed me as being an idiot, but with Microsoft paying a 60% percent premium for Yahoo would it be so unreasonable for Google to buyout Facebook? Google, a $180 billion dollar company, certainly has the capital to initiate such a large deal, and it would give Google near dominance over the social networking market.

Google’s efforts to enter the social networking arena have been met with failure. Orkurt is only popular in Brazil, and Open Social hasn’t gotten off the ground or materialized into anything meaningful. Just like the acquisition of youtube in 2006, Google’s only option to make any meaningful inroads with social networking is to make a large acquisition, namely buying out Facebook for $30 billion or more.

Only time will tell, but I am 99 percent certain Facebook won’t be ignored…

Aa frequent reader of Tim Knight’s slopeofhope stock trading blog I have noticed a trend, which is that very little if any of Tim’s ramblings actually help his readers make money in the stock market. He has a unique methodology where using funny log charts, shade-ins and lines he describes what could happen, but not what will. This isn’t useful because obviously in the stock market anything could happen. The dow could go up 1000 points in a single day, although this is exceedingly unlikely. By avoiding making any specific predictions or recommendations Tim can avoid ever having to admit being wrong, yet he will take credit in the unlikely even he is ‘right’.

He will write, for example, ‘the chart shows that a break above the neckline is possible’. If it does break above the neckline he will congratulate himself, but if it doesn’t he will never speak of it again.

Also, his recommendations are too complicated and arcane. When I tell people to buy EWZ at $72 anyone with an online trading account can do this. But Tim’s vague, vacuous advice is far more difficult to act on, which is why his blog isn’t helpful at actually making moeny in the stock market. EWZ has surged nearly right percent since I recommended it on my blog, where as Tim’s confusing recommendations are all over the map.

Nevertheless, that doesn’t stop thousands of loyal readers from lauding over his every word. True, his blog is a trading blog versus an investing blog, but it doesn’t do anyone any good if you can’t make any actual money with his advice. Maybe in time his readers will realize how his blog isn’t very useful and consider alternatives such as iamned.com and others.

Last week in my ‘Are you stupid?’ column I recommended that my readers consider purchasing some EWZ shares at $72. As of 2/1/07 EWZ has closed at nearly $78-a gain of nearly 8% percent in just a few days. In that same period the stock market has surged nearly four percent-in spite of the usual pessimism over so called ‘recession’ and the imaginary ‘credit crisis’ and ‘liquidity crisis’.

EWZ 2 month chart showing a sharp rebound at the $65 level:

Just today some economic numbers were released showing weakening payroll numbers but the markets ignored it, rallying one percent for the day. Why? Cause just like the loser housing numbers it wasn’t a big deal. There is NO problems whatsoever. No major slowdowns in the economy and no shortage of growth. We have massive consumer spending and massive overseas growth. We have a huge web 2.0 internet boom. We’re STILL in a new era of hyper capitalism and spendism. My predictions for 2008 WILL come to fruition.

The stock market will easily make historic highs later this year, and the web 2.0 boom will continue. All the overpaid moronic pundits on TV and the newspapers who were predicting doom and gloom and ‘increased volatility’ and ‘downside risk’ will be proven wrong as they have been since this bull market began in October of 2002. All the web 2.0 bubble heads who mislead people into believing the myth that web 2.0 is just a repeat of the 90’s dotcom bubble will be wrong- just as they were in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

To reiterate, we’re in a global economic boom and emerging markets such as India, China, Brazil, and Russia are at the forefront. This explains why EWZ, a multi-billion dollar index fund of Brazilian stocks, is doing so well. To profit off this revolution you must therefore buy EWZ.

If facebook went public I would immediately sell my EWZ and load up on facebook, but there are no plans as of yet for facebok to go public. Should facebook decide to go public it wouldn’t be too unreasonable to assume that the stock would surge on its IPO, and possibly end the year up 1,000% percent or more, based on its huge revenue growth and web 2.0 hype. However, the closest investment to facebook with regards to the new era which we’re in is EWZ. True, EWZ isn’t an internet company, but the growth of facebook, web 2.0, emerging markets, and EWZ is inextricable.

McCain or Romney will win the election because we’re in a new era lead by the smarties of the new world order. In order for the ’smarties’ who are vested in commodities to continue to make money as they have since the Iraq war began, it is imperative that republican be elected in 2008 so that the Iraq occupation will continue, and oil and other commodity prices will continue to rise. To profit off this inevitability I have been recommending buying the energy select spider, XLE. As the occupation drags on through eight more years of republicanism you can at least be able to profit off the relentless rise in gold and oil prices, even if you oppose the administration.

Americans will elect another republican because family church values are still very important, as well as national and international security. The democrats don’t have such a strong, unifying platform, which is why Bush and Reagan had such successful terms and have encountered weak resistance from the democrats. Contrary to the boo hoo hoo media, the majority of Americans are enjoying a comfortable lifestyle, with easy, plentiful credit. Consumers are still racking up tons of credit card debt and spending exorbitant amounts of money (a term I call spendism) despite the negativity doom and gloom of the media and democrats. We’re in an era of perpetual consumerism, spendism, and materialism.